The momentum in wireless is constant and gaining speed with every passing week. One reason is that this industry seems to be more resilient than most during hard economic times. Another is that we are seeing almost constant breakthroughs in technology on many different fronts.
That said, a number of things stand out for 2009. We have a new Federal Communications Commission and it is clear, at least to me, that this one is listening more to the Internet advocates than to the wireless industry. Net neutrality looms in our path, but hopefully it will be defeated--or at least the FCC will understand how different wireless broadband is from wired broadband and how critical network management is to wireless--but the wireless industry will have to do a better job of educating the commissioners and their staff.
Cloud wireless computing certainly gained a lot of ink and attention at numerous conferences this year, and several companies including Microsoft, Nokia and Palm ended up losing data their customers had entrusted to their clouds. I view the cloud as only one of the places I want my data stored. Cloud wireless access is a logical extension of our wireless environment, but anyone who trusts all of their information to the cloud is in for a rude awakening at some point.
Certainly the stimulus money ($7.2 billion) for broadband implementations garnered a lot of attention. The proposals put forth ask for four to five times that much and it is not yet clear who will receive the grants and how much difference they will really make. Our government seems to be treating broadband as a number of different things. Each group is vying to have its own solutions adopted, and now the FCC is developing its own broadband plan. The reality is that wireless broadband could be easily extended to cover most of the U.S. population if all of the organizations that are vying for it would work together: education, medical, and yes, even public safety.
TV white space was going to be a big deal with lots of unlicensed spectrum between TV channels all over the United States. Google fought hard and won, but when the rules were released, it became clear that TV white space systems in the top 100 or more markets were not going to happen. There are few if any places in the urban areas of the United States where there are the required three empty TV channels next to each other. One system has been installed in a rural area and I expect to see more, but I have to wonder why anyone would spend so much money on smart radios when there are less expensive ways to accomplish the same thing.
And, of course, there are WiMAX and LTE. LTE is closing in on becoming a reality with Verizon Wireless leading the pack, AT&T not far behind and many other network operators committing to LTE as their next-generation technology. Meanwhile, WiMAX is making inroads in rural areas around the world where Internet access is needed. WiMAX systems are also serving rural America, many being promoted by educational organizations. Clearwire raised yet another $3 billion for its network buildout, but it is not clear (pun intended) how it will compete in metro areas where there are already six to eight choices for wired and wireless broadband services. Moving into metro areas instead of sticking to its original plan to serve smaller communities, Clear has set itself up to go head-to-head with Verizon and AT&T as they roll out their LTE networks on 700 MHz.
The smartphone is becoming the preferred device for many and we saw a lot of them introduced in 2009, including some dubbed "iPhone killers" that were not. Several smartphones based on the Android open operating system from Google hit the market as well, and there are more to come. But the BlackBerry and iPhone are still the most popular devices because they are end-to-end solutions--customers do not have to build their own ecosystems.
How could we talk about 2009 and not mention app stores? Led, of course, by Apple, now everyone has an app store, and while Apple's is wildly successful, most of the others are off to a slow start. The network operators are trying to beef up their own stores since apps stores that sell direct to the customer eat into a network's income and are a threat to the all-important ARPU figures. I suspect that app stores will morph once again over the next few years, perhaps to follow a business model in which the networks can share in the revenue stream.
Ebooks, led by the Amazon Kindle, have become an "in" thing. The business model is great. There are no contracts with wireless network operators and customers pay by the book (at reduced prices). The Kindle is truly an appliance that uses wireless for its communications media and not a communications device that is also a reader. There are other appliances on the market that employ wireless technology and the numbers are growing. Wireless is being used in many navigation devices, dog collars, game systems, and more. Qualcomm has gone direct to the consumer with its Flo mobile TV service and there are now mobile-TV-only devices available.
I have only scratched the surface of 2009 and things are happening faster than ever before. This year was, indeed, a whirlwind of wireless activity--2010 is shaping up to be a category 4 hurricane.
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Seybold: 2009 wrap-up
Source: Fierce Wireless
Date: 12/09/2009
